Discussion: Dream Team at Tiomila

Interesting! Top International Women´s Team challenging the men at Tiomila...
http://www.svt.se/sport/orienteringsstjarnor-utman...
http://www.orientering.se/grenar/orientering/nyhet...
(both in Swedish)

omg

Tove has been preparing for it:

http://www.marathon.se/aktuellt/tjejen-som-utmanad...

Awesome!

Wonderful. Certainly seems to give a good interview too.

and a radio interview as well
http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programi...

Så här springer Nightfoxes International:
1. Emma Klingenberg (Danmark, Järla IF OK)
2. Nadiya Volynska (Ukraina, OK Orion)
3. Tove Alexandersson (Stora Tuna OK)
4. Annika Billstam (OK Linné)
5. Ida Bobach (Danmark, OK Pan Åhus)
6. Sara Hagström (Falköpings AIK OK)
7. Catherine Taylor (Storbritannien, OK Linné; ersätter Maja Alm)
8. Simone Niggli (Schweiz, OK Tisaren)
9. Sara Lüscher (Schweiz, Kalevan Rasti; ersätter Mari Fasting)
10. Lena Eliasson (Domnarvets GoIF)

Thanks Boris - you beat me to it :)

News in Swedish here and here...

Tove on the Long Night - an interesting challenge!

Really cool and exciting. Why hasn't a group of top women done this before? Seems so obvious now ...

Anybody want to make guesses as to their placing? Although none of them may be as fast as the top few men, they have the advantage of not being constrained by all being from the same club. It will be very cool if they're up at the top. (And they'll provide extra motivation to whatever teams are near them.)

I guess 25th! based on the high number of OK Linné runners in uppland terrain ;)

They'll have already also raced on that map on Saturday as well (both an advantage and disadvantage, I guess). I think well into top 25 is certainly possible...

62nd.

51st.

I was waiting for this to turn into the Price is Right. Who will use the $1 strategy?

73rd, though I would love if they broke into the top 50.

I'd say top-30 is possible with a good set of races from the whole team. In the comments they say they haven´t really thought about a realistic goal, doing it just for fun... (maybe top 100) but you never know when/if the horns will grow...

Consistency in the orienteering part usually pays off in the long run and they certainly know how to do it. Running speed may not be enough for higher placings though.

49. Will be cool to follow!

Top 25 ain't gonna happen. Top 50 will be hard.

Looking back a couple of WOC Longs you can say that the difference between top women and top men is in the ballpark of 1 min/km. When it's less physical they can get closer (0.7 min/km in Finland), but when it's tough they're further behind (1.3 min/km in Italy). Here we have something fairly technical with a lot of night. I say 1 min/km behind is a good performance.

Last year's 10-mila was 116 km long. 116 min behind was place 53, 54 somewhere.

70. The question is how long they can keep up with top packs/trains. Weakest men still being able to keep up with top night trains usually aren't able to run nowhere near top WOC paces on their own (not strong enough to even participate WOC), so fastest girls may well be able to keep up with those night trains too. Falling behind early for unfortunate error or something and having to navigate night legs on their own would slow them down a lot compared to just following fast packs half of the relay. They surely can do well on they own those latter legs with daylight and no much packs any more. It is essential to do fist three legs well - especially the first one.

That's exciting! Should make for fun spectating :).

I also applied the same strategy as Pi, saw that the predicted placement was in the 60s and then decided that it would be better if they would only run .5 mins/k slower than the top men's teams, because that would be more fun to watch. The ravings of an optimist. Still, I think the women have some very strong night leg runners, and don't think that the superstar team is going to have very many errors at all across the 10 legs.

If we take the average position (count Wil as a 25, and Bubo as a 30) then we have around a 48th position.

Being the first to respond... I suspect that my 25th placement is surely acting as an anchoring point in a way that might be unconsciously pulling the group number a little up and I think BorisGr has a paper describing how "the wisdom of crowds" requires independent and unbiased responses to achieve improved performance. Maybe some of the other math talents in this forum can derive some useful clues from the sea of noise...

Pi´s and later Ross´s reasonings about minutes behind - related to how many places that would mean - are sound and could be a good bench-mark...

My top-30 is possibly wishful thinking and not necessarily attainable when applying other aspects as well - such as being forced to run alone in the night. Following the bigger trains shouldn´t be too much of a problem.

Also consider that Emma will run the anchor leg and then 4-5 hours later the first leg. That is a tough challenge in itself. Key as always is to get a good start. A team that falls behind must do most of the work itself to advance.

I'm revising my guess to 77th.

Cristina, you have insider knowledge :)

As intimated above, one or more runners on the team will likely not run due to illness/injury, probably need to wait until a new line-up is announced before taking another guess at the placement.

Billstam/Taylor out. Magnusson/Ingham in. Source SVT.

Did Tove misspunch?? or maybe just hasn't downloaded? What does NOK mean?

She's down as DQ on the mobile app. Maybe there is a card issue. I hope that it can be fixed. It looks as though she had a killer run.

I think there are a few card issues, my nephews team stopped being there, now seems to be back http://193.10.29.20/index2.php?bibNumber=12

Tove on twitter: 50 min gick bra, sen tog energin slut o det blev lite kämpigt. Nästa gång ska jag kolla kodsiffrorna bättre #långanatten #fail #nyttförsök?

50 minutes went well, then ran out of energy and it was a bit tough. Next time I will check the control codes better.

Yes, as shown above Tove mispunched. The whole team was still eager to experience the Tiomila feeling at night and finished all the rest of their legs.
Without the DQ their final place would have been 135.

Final line-up after Changes:

Emma Klingenberg, DK pl. 151 (+9:25)
Nadiya Volynska, UKR pl. 152 (+25:17)
Tove Alexandersson, SWE (pl. 125) (+35:12)
Maria Magnusson, SWE (pl. 120) (+51:28)
Ida Bobach, DK (pl. 114) (+71:12)
Sara Hagström, SWE (pl. 109) (+88:53)
Lizzie Ingham, NZE (pl. 112) (+112:33)
Simone Niggle, SWI (pl. 105) (+132:53)
Sara Lüscher, SWI (pl. 102) (+150:38)
Lena Eliasson, SWE (pl. 135) (+186:44)

With the exception for Emma and Tove, running early with faster runners around, the team as a whole lost between 1 and 2 minutes per km ~10-20 minutes per leg. Many of them had more mistakes than they usually have - probably in part affected by running in big packs, something they are not used to...

According to interviews after the race they are all eager to try something similar again though...