All thoughts tonight are with the people of Lake County, California. A firestorm is raging through the county. The town of Cobb, where many orienteers have stayed, has been destroyed. Middletown is threatened. I have spent much time among the good folks of the area, while course setting at Boggs Mtn State Forest. Hope they are all safe.
Boggs Mountain in happier days was the site of 2009 US Team Trials, as well as many other A Meets. http://baoc.org/wiki/Results/2009/Boggs_Mountain
Oh no! That's terrible. Cobb, its people, and Boggs Mountain are all my favorites. My thoughts are with the residents.
Ooof. I watched all through August when the Rocky and then Jerusalem fires burned just east of Boggs and was relieved when they were finally out with Boggs spared. Looks like this one ("Valley") started Saturday just outside of Cobb.
The USFS Active Fire Mapping page
has lots of useful info and remote sensing data. Cloudy today, but if you look back at the MODIS imagery from Friday
you can see the big brown scar from Rocky/Jerusalem just east of Boggs.
Today's fire detection map
shows the currently burning spots around Boggs. On a clear day you can see these as orange areas in the MODIS false-color images. You can see the orange of the Butte fire east of Sacramento in today's image
(lower right quad).
A fund has been set up for victims of all the Lake County fires.
I work for Bike Monkey that puts on the Boggs 8hr MTB race, one of largest events with 800+ people. We were devastated to hear the news. We love the forest and that community.
It seems that all of Boggs Mountain State Forest is within the burned area. Great terrain, great map, great park rangers. Beautiful forest. Many memories.
I feel like the memories I have been immolated as well, but they can't be. My loss, as it were, is merely spiritual, not corporeal as is the case with the many people whose lives are intertwined with the area.
I take solace in the fact that I availed myself of every opportunity to orienteer in that Arcadian splendor while I could, experiencing that ephemeral oneness of the body, mind, and spirit that we have privileged access to in this most sublime sport, in that perfect splendor.
One of our favorite hot springs destroyed! so sad to hear about Harbin Hot Springs!
Here's an animated gif showing a map of Boggs (green polygon) with today's false-color MODIS, and the false-color MODIS from Sept 8, before the fire:
The entire area of the Boggs O-map has changed color, but its not the same brown color as the rest of the burn scar. The Aqua image from earlier in the day shows the same color difference, so I don't think its lighting.
I have only seen a few photos and film clips of the aftermath of the fires but common in these seem to be that buildings, vehicles and of course the grasses are totaly burned but the trees with high canopies have been spared. Is that general throughout? It would make sense that if the fire was so fast moving it would burn itself out in the dry grasses of an area before the moister trees had a chance to dry out and ignite.
That is no consolation to those who have lost homes, livelihoods and perhaps loved ones but it may mean the orienteers do not have to write off a favorite venue, just erase some green from the map.
One way or another, the fire won't hurt the contours or the rock. There are definitely places (e.g. in Colorado) where a forest fire swept through a mapped area, and the land is still there and available for orienteering, maybe with vegetation updates. Fire won't hurt a hot spring, either. Mourn the lives, mourn the homes, but the land survives.
Fire increases hydrophobicity of soil which means less infiltration and more surface flow and potential for erosion when it rains. Tremendous alteration of the landscape (and yes contours too due to erosion gullies, stream channel change, etc.) following fires in last few years in Colorado, Australia, BC,....
What fuels burn depends a lot on the fire behaviour (rate of spread, crown vs surface, fire weather) and the Fire weather itself. Once I have permission to do so I can post some instand camera video from a prescribed burn I was researching earlier this year in AB.
@jjcote--true, but the contours and rock at Boggs really aren't interesting. What made it a special venue was its relatively unique variegated and complex ground vegetation situation (coupled with the trail system and heavy overall relief.)
I would normally hold out hope that Boggs itself survived in reasonably good condition. As the State Demonstration Forest, Boggs was more heavily managed than the surroundings and saw regular controlled burns. However, the fire conditions in the West this year are simply insane. The last three year period in California this year was the hottest-driest three year period on record (since people started taking notes some 100 years ago), and I believe snow packs were ~90% below normal. Tree-ring studies estimate that the soils are drier now than they have been in over 1200 years. Even healthy forests are going up like kindling. Some of the videos I've seen are crazy.
Here's a look at today's MODIS image, comparing it to the Sept 8 pre-burn image. Using the tiff versions of the images, I took out band 7 (red in those false-color images) because its 500m/pix and used only bands 1 and 2 which are 250m/pix. Most of the burn/non-burn info is in band 2 (~850nm, which is very short IR - almost red). Made a pseudo 3-color image from these two bands for Sept 8 and Sept 18, plus a difference image of these two. White outline is approx Boggs Mtn SF boundary, and the O-map fills much of this area. The green dot in the diff image just west of Boggs is the location of the shed where the fire is suspected to have started (click for full res):
It looks like there's an unburned island in the SW part of Boggs, but hard to say for sure.
This is a letter distributed to the Friends of Boggs Mountain:
Please note that the California Dept of Forestry and Fire Prevention (CAL FIRE) has closed Boggs for the indefinite future due to post-Valley Fire hazards.
Boggs is closed to road and trail use as well as camping due to the dangerous conditions that are present, as well as the salvage logging which will be occurring.
According to the forest manager, when Boggs is re-opened, tours will be conducted for the public to see what happened, what is left and what the forestry staff plan to do for rehabilitation.
It will look very different and will not have the same allure for quite some time, but their goal is to have a healthy diverse forest that will be more resilient to future wildfires. There may also be educational opportunities for local schools regarding rehabilitation after a destructive wildfire, and with assistance from children, youth, and the greater community to help replant some of the forest.
For more information, please contact:
State Forest Manager, RPF #2418
Boggs Mtn. Demonstration State Forest
And more info:
09/18/2015 0745: 73,700 acres, 40% contained. All but 1% of the 3,493 acre Boggs Demonstration State Forest was significantly damaged by the fire. Approximately 45 million board feet of timber was killed or damaged.
SAFETY: Firefighter safety is a concern due to fatigue and rugged terrain. Driving hazards include downed power lines, narrow, unmarked, slick roads and increased civilian traffic. Hazards within the fire area include snags, hazard trees, poison oak, uneven and slippery ground from recent precipitation. Hazards adjacent to burned and damaged structures include exposure to toxic chemicals, contaminated materials, flammable gasses, and electrical. Hazards adjacent to the Geysers Geothermal Fields area include mine shafts, hydrogen sulfide and natural steam vents.
The Friends of Boggs are being led astray apparently. Unfortunately the long-term outlook
for Boggs is bleak, if the same absence of tree re-growth observed elsewhere occurs. The trees will not regrow, and the mountains will be covered only by dense, impenetrable undergrowth, according to yesterday's NYTimes:
...mother pines are nowhere in sight. Nature’s script has been disrupted by a series of unusually intense, unusually large fires — a product of many factors that include government firefighting policies, climate change and bad luck.
The result is bad news for forests here, in the West and around the world. A planet with fewer trees is less able to fight climate change, because trees absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as part of photosynthesis. “The future in a lot of places,” Dr. Allen said, “is looking shrubbier.”
Here's an article
about the current state of Boggs Mountain, with some pictures. 99% of the forest burned, 80% of the trees were killed, 300,000 trees planted in greenhouses destined for Boggs next year.
That's an interesting article. But another article this morning
in the NYTimes presents a different picture: Trees suck up precious ground water and exacerbate the California drought.
Interesting to note that tree-cover in Yosemite has increased three-fold since John Muir's day, from ~80 trees/acre to 250/acre! And with the drought and warmer climate, and decreased winter rains and snows (yes, even in this El Niño winter), these trees are growing faster, running out of ground water earlier, becoming vulnerable to insects, and dying at an increased rate. That's why so many dead trees are visible in the mountain forests these days.
So California's Dept of Water Resources may have something to say about reforestation efforts at Boggs...and elsewhere on our O maps.
I saw an interesting museum exhibit, showing a survey done in my part of Colorado in the 1800s, which found far more extensive burn areas than one sees now. Similarly, Banff had an exhibit showing the extensive clearings and burn scars that were the norm there before fire suppression. We've really changed the west a lot by fire suppression. Maybe Reagan was right to vilify trees.
The area near Boggs is burning again. The large Kincade fire that's been in the news (in addition to the big fires in L.A. county) started early Thurs morning just SW of Cobb mountain:
Smoke clearly visible in the GOES pacific sector imagery
. CalFire incident info here
. Only 5% of 22000 acres contained as of this morning. Winds this weekend are forecast to be 40 MPH sustained, gusting to 70 MPH from Sat night through Mon morning. Direction should be from the NE, which is away from Boggs, but it looks very serious for the folks there.
this morning. The evacuation area has expanded.
The Kincade fire is becoming a beast. So tragic about that beautiful area, the coastal forests, and peoples' homes and lifestyles.
Serious situation in CA right now. NWS has issued a Civil Emergency Message covering parts of Sonoma. Sebastopol, Windsor and the NW quadrant of the city of Santa Rosa (pop ~200,000) are under a mandatory evacuation order. Map
Here's the L-band animation
showing the progress of the burning front over the past 6 hrs. The fire is the black blob NW of the Bay. The wind is blowing it up big time.
My daughter has been evacuated from Santa Rosa, heading down to Petaluma to hunker down with a friend.
My niece, husband and two dogs were evacuated at 4am this morning from Sebastopol. She too is wandering around Petaluma today, after taking 3 hours to make a 20-mile drive! And wondering where they'll spend the night. According to her, over 250 000 people are under mandatory evacuation orders today.
Worst case scenario: they'll each take a dog, and sleep in the back of their car tonight! Here's videos of the Kincaide Fire
, taken this morning, showing the devastation at an historic winery on Hwy 128 which is the main highway through the length of Napa Valley.
this morning, showing efforts to save an old Victorian mansion on Chalk Hill Road off Hwy 128 by trying to suck up the contents of the home's swimming pool to fight the fire.
On the edge of negative (F) dew points! Wow.
If you have friends in Sonoma County, this Sonoma Co. Incident Map
is probably the best way to stay abreast of their situation. Note that you can input specific street addresses to discover their power outage and evacuation status.
For lots of valuable info on California weather consider following Daniel Swain. @Weather_West
He just tweeted about this new fire in NE Bay Area
Yeah, that spot could be bad. It appeared in the L-band just after dawn local time and is hanging around. Image
. Smoke also visible in the true-color image
. TV pic from Daniel Swain's page:
Literally the one week when I'm out of town, this happens?! I'm already looking forward to running in the smoke when I come back... Hopefully the wind will favor the firefighters and they'll be able to deal with it quickly.
Here's a full-res L-band gif movie
starting just before midnight last night. 5 minute frame interval.
First sign of the Kincade fire appeared in the L-band satellite imagery at 9:26 PM PDT on Wed Oct 23. Three images:
Looks like it started near the Sonoma county line on the SW flank of Cobb Mountain, at or just above the upper power plants of The Geysers
geothermal field along Cobb Creek. The hill at the center of this google map
is the approximate location. Note Kincade rd. crossing Cobb creek in the lower left. The upper part of this hill looks like it burned in the 2015 fire. It is covered in standing dead timber.
Here's the full-res L-band gif movie
at a 30 minute frame interval covering the four days of the burn from start to present. In the lower right, the Carquinez bridge fire flares up and fades near the end. Looks like there's another fire that's still going strong right now east of there (across the river from Pittsburg, CA). There's a large wind farm just east of that location.
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