Although I believe Daniels is one of the best books out there, it is a bit of a stretch from 200m. to 5000! But you were only off by 4%, so it is surely attainable.
Certainly agree. In the past I charted per mile times on log paper and it was almost a straight line relationship, with time increasing at the 20 sec rate with every doubling. Worked well up to 20 miles and then blew the predicted sub 3 hr marathon when I bonked -- pre-gu.