One more race is in the books, so let's look at the tiers again:
What I wrote last time:
Tier 1: Enger, Bone, Harvey, Ledins
Tier 2: Jones, Nachev
Tier 3: Nuss, Toomet, Olson, Hayes, Christopherson, Baughman
At the time, Tier 1 was undefeated against everyone else, so that's pretty clear. Tier 2 was winless against Tier 1 and only had 1 loss against everyone else (Jonathan Olson beat both Jones and Nachev in Race #3).
But after race #5, there are a few adjustments
Tier 1a: Enger, Bone.
These guys are the only ones with multiple wins. Jourdan isn't in this tier anymore because he can't qualify for the series anymore. He missed two races entirely, and he's course designing two others, so he'll only get three.
Tier 1b: Ledins
He's 1-3 against Enger, 1-3 against Bone, 3-1 against Nachev. Undefeated against everyone else.
Tier 2: Nachev, Jones
Nikolay is now up 3-2 on Jones, plus has a higher score (362-360), and he's the only one who's beaten one of the Tier 1 guys.
Tier 3a: Nuss, Olson
I lost to Jonathan again, but I'm still up head to head (3-2) and on score (353-348). However, our two guaranteed scores are tied (90-88 for me, 89-89 for him). Jonathan has a better record against Tier 2 than I do (he's beaten Jones twice and Nachev once, while I've just beaten Jones once). But he's also lost to Baughman, Hayes, Christopherson, and Toomet once, while I'm undefeated. In other words, I'm more consistent, but since you can throw out low scores, that doesn't really do much.
Tier 3b: Toomet, Christopherson, Hayes, Baughman
I'm 5-0 against Toomet, but I just squeaked by him again.
Looking ahead towards the end-of-season standings and where I'll end up... 1st and 2nd are impossible. 3rd through 5th are highly improbable, as I'll need 3rds-or-better in both of the next two races, plus a little bit of help.
So that leaves me where I've been all season: 6th (ie: win the third tier)
Ok, so what do the guys behind me need to do?
Toomet, Christopherson, and Baughman each need at least one 4th, plus another 4th-through-6th, plus no improvement in my score. With all of the Tier 1 and Tier 2 guys ahead of them, I don't see any of these guys snagging a 4th place, unless there are some big absences (and if that's the case, my score will likely improve, too).
So that basically puts my only competition as: Jonathan Olson (but we kinda knew that)
If I don't improve my score, then Jonathan needs two more 6th places to squeak ahead of me. He's got two 5th places already. If the Tier 1 and Tier 2 guys show up and perform well, then that's a 7th and a 6th (at best) for Jonathan, which will leave him just short. So, I want all of those guys to show up, and especially Nachev and Jones to have good performances.
The other way to prevent him from passing me is to simply beat him head-to-head, and I think I just need to do this once in two tries to hold him off (assuming he doesn't finish better than 5th in the one where I don't beat him). I currently hold the tiebreaker over him, and he needs a 4th place to get the tiebreaker back.
I like the way you laid this all out. Interesting read. And: good job, keep it up!
Ok, let's take a look at the WIOL standings. I haven't done this at all this season!
Five races, four race winners! Caleb is in the driver's seat with two wins. To win the title outright, each of the other three boys would need to win the next two.
The Christopherson girls just qualified for the season, and Siri made it interesting by stealing a win from her older sister. Tyra is guaranteed a tie for the season title, and only Siri winning twice more will prevent this. There's an interesting chase for the bronze, though! Charlotte and Erika are dueling, with Charlotte getting the ever-so-important 100 points from the one race where the Christophersons were running at State XC Champs.
There are a few stories I'd like to know about Lakeside's JV orienteering team this year.
Caitlyn showed up for one JV race... and won it. She hasn't been back.
Declan finished 28th in his first race (3x the winning time, 50 minutes lost on two controls), mispunched in his second race (was in 1st place at #9)... and then won the next two!