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Discussion: oceania forecast

in: blairtrewin; blairtrewin > 2017-04-05

Apr 6, 2017 12:41 AM # 
slow-twitch:
Metservice's 10 day model tends to over-forecast rain but at the moment it looks like the couple of days leading into Easter could be raining again. I'm sure the prospect of a wet Oceania sprint at the AUT campus doesn't bother you at all - lightning never strikes twice, right?
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Apr 6, 2017 12:56 AM # 
blairtrewin:
Looks like the biggest potential for serious rain is Tuesday/Wednesday, a bit unclear what will happen after that.

At least any collisions I'm in will be at a horizontal speed approximately 20% lower than they were in 2005 (although acceleration due to gravity hasn't changed).
Apr 8, 2017 8:22 AM # 
jennycas:
Is NZ really going to get the tail end of a cyclone from Vanuatu later next week?
(quoting the weekend paper here)
Apr 8, 2017 10:48 AM # 
blairtrewin:
The midweek rain's separate. Not impossible the cyclone (or remnants thereof) could move in NZ's direction but it wasn't looking especially likely on yesterday's model run. Will have another look on Monday.
Apr 9, 2017 11:30 PM # 
blairtrewin:
Now looks like there is a reasonable chance of the remnants of the cyclone coming close to NZ around Thursday, on top of the midweek system.

The good news is that current indications are that conditions should clear during Friday with no serious rain for several days after that, but another 50-100mm on top of what's already fallen will make ground conditions even wetter than they already are.

Another bit of good news (for a few of us, anyway) is that at this stage it looks pretty good for our planned Tongariro Crossing trip on the Tuesday, although things can certainly change that far out.

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