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Discussion: predictions?

in: Billygoat 41 (May 12, 2019 - Lebanon, NH, US)

May 10, 2019 9:22 PM # 
Only 1.5 days to go and where are the BG predictions? With all the injuries of late, who is going to have what it takes?

With Greg nursing an injury does that leave it wide open on the men's side? Will Will H be able to outfox speedy upcoming juniors AJ and Peter? What about sleeper CSU talents Ari and Jimmy?

Over on the women's side with far fewer entries, is it going to come down to Izzy .vs. Alex? How about Bridget or Julia? Are either of them recovered enough to take them on?

Who am I overlooking? Did I honestly end every sentence with a question mark?
May 11, 2019 2:37 AM # 
Is the only question I can with certainty your last one?
May 11, 2019 8:48 PM # 
Here's an interesting stat: of the people who have finished the Billygoat within the time limit when they were over the age of 65, how many are now dead? (Try to guess without peeking.)
May 11, 2019 9:28 PM # 
May 11, 2019 10:31 PM # 
I think I'm going to win. No bias involved.
May 11, 2019 11:51 PM # 
Joe is correct, unless somebody has recently passed away without my knowledge. They're all still alive except Andy Gagarin. (But a couple of them are quite old.)
May 12, 2019 3:56 AM # 
J-J, do you know how many Billgoats Sharon Crawford has completed? (Something I could mention in my next RMOC email update...)
May 12, 2019 12:00 PM # 
May 12, 2019 2:15 PM # 
Feet will win.
May 12, 2019 5:41 PM # 

Top finishers — AJ, Keegan, Francis F, Peter Z, Will, Boris, Wyatt, Vadim, Andis, Joe, Julia, Alex, JP Cote, Nate, Jon C, Bridget
May 12, 2019 5:45 PM # 
Thank you, J-J!
May 12, 2019 5:50 PM # 
I think I'm going to win. No bias involved.

May 12, 2019 5:51 PM # 
JP Cote is actually Philippe C-J.
May 12, 2019 6:52 PM # 
Philippe won a 6 hour Rogaine on Sat so his legs could have been a bit sluggish
May 13, 2019 1:05 PM # 
What was the GV this year?
May 13, 2019 2:39 PM # 
Okay statistical folks ... I'm guessing this was easily the youngest ever combined age of male and female winners. But, by how much?
May 13, 2019 2:50 PM # 
Last year Greg A + Bridget = 43, if I am not mistaken. This year, AJ + Julia = 38. I think that's the margin.
May 13, 2019 3:06 PM # 
May 13, 2019 3:10 PM # 
Using orienteering age or age on the day? With O age the above work out to 44 and 37.
May 13, 2019 3:24 PM # 
Actually 37 (AJ 18, Julia 19)
May 13, 2019 4:00 PM # 
I'll work it out with the spreadsheet tonight.
May 13, 2019 5:10 PM # 
In contrast to AJ, Julia was quite modest in her intentions for the race. I rode up with her, and Phil, and she seemed a bit lacking in details of the race format (skip, fork) and said she didn't like mass start races. She even had an inadvertent skip, but made the best of it. I was quite surprised to see her at the top of the string of results when I finished.
May 13, 2019 11:48 PM # 
I don't find Julia winning is a surprise - she is the fasted lady from all who started. I think she runs her 5 K as fast as AJ! Great job Juniors!
May 14, 2019 12:20 AM # 
Mr Wonderful:
Is the shirt cut off 3:30:00, or old BQ style 3:30:59?
May 14, 2019 12:35 AM # 
May 14, 2019 10:46 AM # 
More stats into coming (I'm waiting for some data), but here are a few trivia items:
William Hawkins has passed Greg Balter to take over the lead on the men's top points list, 203 to 194.
Peggy Dickison has passed Sharon Crawford to take over the lead on the women's points list, 407 to 401.
Walt Lyons has broken Andy Gagarin's record for oldest overall (i.e. overtime) finisher by about six months, a week shy of his 78th birthday and five minutes over the cutoff.
May 15, 2019 12:36 AM # 
AJ confirmed as youngest ever winner, by a few days. Julia youngest-ever* solo victory woman (Bridget was younger last year, but tied for first). So yeah, pretty clear that this is the youngest combined age.

* I'm actually not 100% sure because I don't have a year of birth for Margo (Thornton) Webber, who won in 1982. Figured it out, she was 22.
May 15, 2019 2:04 AM # 
All those Stats? There are careers in baseball for you, jj and others.
May 15, 2019 2:22 AM # 
How many Billygoats have taken place on Mothers Day, and how many of the winners on those days were mothers at the time?

For that to be a real baseball stat I think I'd also have to ask about phases of the moon and average atmospheric pressure.
May 15, 2019 2:56 AM # 
10 were on Mother's Day: '84, '86, '87, '88, '06, '09, '14, '16, '18, '19.

I believe the only mother to win on Mother's Day was Kristin Hall in '18 (tied with her daughter).

I don't have moon phases, though they're easy to look up. I do have a brief weather report for each year except the first one.
May 15, 2019 3:13 AM # 
Also, Greg Balter has passed Jeff Saeger on the list of overall points (total number of people beaten), with me in a distant third place. It will be a long haul for anyone else to take over the top of that list, though Jeff could pull back into first if Greg were to miss the race or something. I scanned down the list to see if there was anyone who I thought could ever catch me, and I had to get all the way down to Ethan Childs and Peter Zakrevski before I found any realistic candidates.
May 15, 2019 8:09 AM # 
Surely PG would have to be up there?

And what about the one award for 2019 that we're all waiting to hear? Reports suggest there will be a number of contenders for jockstuffer.
May 15, 2019 10:50 AM # 
I won that award in my first Aus Billygoat (aka Boomer). Shame we don't do them anymore.
May 15, 2019 10:54 AM # 
PG is in seventh place, but it's hard for him to move up now that he doesn't orienteer any more. There are a handful of people who may get past him.
May 15, 2019 1:03 PM # 
If North America had adopted the Billygoat format as one of our champs race formats 40 years ago how much bigger do you think our sport would be today? We go to such big efforts to spread out start times, have courses for all ages and abilities, discourage following, etc, etc. But year after year the race that gets the most discussion here on AP that is about the performances themselves is the Billygoat. There is a social aspect of the race that you just don’t get with interval start races that have massively long start windows. I’ve stated this many times before on AP. I’d love to see our forest race champs weekend consist of a middle distance interval start format and then a chase start long and then have an optional mass start Billygoat format ultra long on some long weekend race weekends.
May 15, 2019 1:11 PM # 
Mass start orienteering races are SO MUCH FUN!
May 15, 2019 2:48 PM # 
I have one this weekend, hooray! Shame I can't keep up with the elites.
May 15, 2019 2:52 PM # 
I have run in one and only one Billygoat (and to throw in a stat I think I probably hold the record for the longest time orienteering before competing in my first Billygoat. It was about 30 years) but yes it was a thrilling endeavor and maddening to look back and think that the best control to leave out was probably the first one. So many controls, so much choice, so little time.
The sincerest form of flattery is imitation. In the south they have the BubbaGoat. In Florida we have the Navi-Gator. Probably other variations around the country, too.
May 16, 2019 2:45 AM # 
Not all orienteers like the mass start. I prefer traditional split start and be alone in the woods ..
I am curious how many are like me or most like mass starts?
May 16, 2019 3:04 AM # 
Mr Wonderful:
My strategy is to be grossly unfit. Then you get all of the excitement of the mass start, and get to be alone in the woods for the last 95%.
May 16, 2019 3:44 AM # 
That's me too, except I don't particularly like the excitement of the mass start, which typically lets me see how slow a runner I am. I don't usually have perfect runs but I enjoy navigating alone.
May 16, 2019 3:48 AM # 
I like some of each.
May 16, 2019 4:17 AM # 
I prefer interval starts but mass start for something different on occasion, hence why I like the introduction of the mass start (for one race) at WMTBOC.

I am always terrified of mass starts in MTB XCO events given the course invariably goes straight onto single track and so you get some fast starters tear off, get onto the single track first and then hold everyone up because they cannot ride it.
May 16, 2019 11:01 AM # 
The Billygoat in particular is a different kind of event, where the mass start includes people with a wide range of abilities, and there's a cooperative element. There were at least a couple of times last weekend when I was in a group, and I spotted the control first and said, "hey, it's over here", to help the pack stay together.
May 16, 2019 11:09 AM # 
I have come to really like mass starts, although it took awhile. One of my favorites was when I was just getting comfortable on advanced courses, and I ran a Billygoat with Peggy. I learned so much from talking about navigation together. I learned this time from running with Izzy and Ed. Totally fun, a different vibe than a NRE.

Jon and I did rogaines of varying lengths with cadets to provide that experience when we were coaching at West Point. Jon still talks about a 6-hour version he did with Jordan as a young cadet, trading off the navigation lead and working on flow.

I think mass start NREs are fun, too, but obviously you don't have the same cooperative aspect that can develop in a race like the Billygoat or the Highlander.

From a parenting perspective, mass start races can frustrating, though - it can be really hard to find child care, and if you have a kid who needs to be shadowed, that kid probably doesn't get to go out on the day of a mass start race. But when they get old enough, there's a degree of security in knowing they'll likely encounter that cooperative spirit and learn from you or from others in the woods.
May 16, 2019 1:13 PM # 
Child care at the Billygoat? It doesn't get any better than this account. See top of thread.
May 16, 2019 1:47 PM # 
So true! And awesome that PG jumped in to support. We have a whole crop of orienteering families with kids Inara's age that will be thinking through these logistics more often in the next 5-10 years.

Especially for NREs, I really appreciate it when organizers recognize the burden a mass start (or events with separate start/finish/shuttling) puts on families and help make it all work. It's intimidating to look at an event and have no idea what to do for child care. And having to ask for help when you don't necessarily know someone in the area can be more intimidating. Even more so if you have a kid with special needs. I have greatly appreciated everyone who has supported us over the years!
May 16, 2019 2:37 PM # 
"Hey, it's over there" to help the pack stay together - jj you were seriously trying for the JS award!
May 16, 2019 3:01 PM # 
If I wanted that award, I'd just give it to myself. :-)
May 20, 2019 9:53 PM # 
For historical purposes, the results are posted here.

This discussion thread is closed.