Nice write up! Good analysis work, proud of you :)
Understand why you're not completely confident but you must be quite experienced with these things by now? Maybe it will surprise you and you'll have a good feeling over the first 5-10km about whether or not 2:45 is possible.
Good luck in any case.
I don't know that I'm that experienced. I've done four, but one at a young age and one in not great health, so it's still a bit tricky to judge. And I think if I wanted to run 2:45 then even allowing for seeing how I feel on the day I'd need to start quicker than 2:50 pace.
Will see how I feel as the taper takes effect but 2:45 feels right on the fringes of what I could hope for and more of a risk than I want to take this time around.