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Discussion: covid modelling initiative

in: graeme; graeme > 2020-04-03

Apr 4, 2020 9:01 AM # 
Sounds interesting. What are you up to?
Apr 4, 2020 9:47 AM # 

Spotted this earlier in the week!
Apr 4, 2020 2:01 PM # 
Cool. Strange (or just politics/capacity/ignorance?) that the UK is only reporting hospital deaths and with quite a time lag.

In Ireland: "On Thursday, the Chief Medical Officer cited these 148 ICU admissions, saying that 14 of these patients had died, 25 had been discharged and the remaining 109 were still being treated in ICU. "

I'm not sure how many deaths were in hospital but non-ICU, but there are a substantial number of non-hospitalised deaths. Our response is far from ideal but at least results are fairly transparent.
Apr 4, 2020 5:08 PM # 
Cool, indeed!
Apr 4, 2020 7:49 PM # 
@ndobbs - the UK government announces the deaths that are reported that day. It takes a few days before we know the people who died *on* that day. I'm OK with them prioritising treating live patients over reporting dead ones.

I have 1800 groups and individual modellers volunteering to help. Finding stuff for them to do is a challenge. Not many actuaries though, I guess balancing extra deaths and collapsing stock markets keeps you out of mischief.

Dark days.
Apr 4, 2020 10:34 PM # 
Glad to have you taking the lead! If you're short an actuary, I could check with a talented colleague whether he's interested.
Apr 5, 2020 9:10 AM # 
It is indeed interesting times. There's an actuarial response group looking at how we can support the government too - I thought it was joined up with your group but may be a separate strand. Call for help here:

My boss is on steering panel for this group, I can put you in touch if you want to add an actuarial string to your modelling bow.
Apr 6, 2020 9:55 AM # 
We seem to be coordinating a department response so who knows if you'll hear from me. Epidemiologists Assemble!
Apr 6, 2020 4:52 PM # 
Meanwhile I'm involved in trying to help RBS cope with the volume of requests for Mortgage and Loan repayment deferrals etc.
You'll probably not be hearing from us though

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