Some splits for you https://genebeveridge.nz/pacing-onto-the-kepler-po...
the splits all seem realistic for you.
I think timmy is trolling greig, and greig just bit back
Unlike you I've seen Tim's recent fitness, I think it's a good platform to build off for the Kepler, probably just some more speed work and a few longer runs.
Gene ran a very consistent race and his splits would be good ones to use. I think Matt is just scared that you might beat him. I wonder if he will have 'internet issues' and won't make it in, it's an easy way for him to save face.
Tim will beat me for sure, I am an old man who hasn't looked like going under 6 hours or anywhere near it since jesus was still hooning around wearing sandles.
kepler doesn't need any speedwork at all, you just have to run 5:30s all day and call it good.
It seems like Matt is forfeiting the race so the real question becomes how much under Matt's 5:50 PB can Tim do? Matt's dream is for Tim to go slower than 6:47:08, although I'm sure he'll settle for any 6hr+ time. Matt will be spewing if/when Tim goes sub 5:50:36. Which seems like easy pickings.
The next goal is to put Tane in his place. To do this Tim needs to shave a further 10mins off Matt's PB and go sub 5:39:52.
What I'd really like to see is for Tim to set a bigger goal and go after a time close to Gene's, there's no point aiming to just beat Matt's time, he's never been competitive. Ignore Matt's goading about 5:30s, Tim regularly runs in the low 4min/km so even allowing for a bit of slow down he should comfortably be able to run sub 5min/km on the flats and down hills. His uphill pace is really good at the moment so he should get up the climb in good time. As I said before really some speed work is the key, this will probably allow him to improve his flat pace down to close to 4:30min/km.
I'm backing Tim to go better than 5:30.
Sub 5min/k for the last 30km will only get him close to Matt's time. If he wants to beat my (slow) time he will need to do 4:30min/k and to beat Gene's time 3:30min/k for the last 30km.
I would hardly set my 5:39 time as "my place" this was actually my first (and only so far) running race longer than 26km believe it or not. Come see me when you can run up to Avalanche peak and down to the Bealey hotel in 2:25. Ill shout you a beer.
Luckily we have some data available. :-)
Your place is 5:39 until such time that you beat it. For the record mine is 8:56 or something.
Matt doesn't have a GPS track of his PB. But you do. The last 30km had an average pace of 5:34min/km. Therefore really Tim only needs to match that pace, assuming he can match your pace up until that point. To match Gene's pace over the last 30km he needs to do 4:54min/km.
At no point does Tane run under 4min/km for a km. Gene does for 1km at the start and does 3:59min/km. My pick is Matt never ran under 4min/km either.
At the halfway point Gene is about 8mins in front of Tane. The key appears to be being able to maintain the 5min/km pace on the flat. And as mentioned previously that just requires him to do a bit of speed work.
Hopefully Tane will be entering too, I reckon his place is much closer to Gene's PB.
As for Avalanche peak, there's no strava segment for what you describe so it never happened. Sadly I never got to do that race.
So much trolling to do, mostly of Greig really. It's not really trolling though, more like shooting fish in a barrel.
What's your PB at the Kepler again Greig? What's Clares?
5:30 requires 10k speed of 33-34 minutes so at least that can be used as short term targets. My current speed is maybe 41/42
Just hope I get in as always.
Clearly you can't read Matt, it's listed above.
Stop using excuses, a 10km speed of 33-34 mins isn't required to run 5:30 pace. That's over 2mins/km slower. It's way slower. Tim just needs to do some speed work to push his cruising speed up. He can easily run 5:30 pace aerobically at no point does he need to have the speed to run 3:30 pace. The long runs will give his body the conditioning it requires to maintain that comfortable aerobic pace.
Matt: Get a proper coach and you'll be able to run a PB this year.
I wear glasses, one eye doesn't shut and I have palsy, but nowhere above does it say what your PB is because all I see is a bunch of times under 7 hours and we all know that ain't you. You can't break 7 or 8 hours and pretty much used up all of the 8th hour as well.
9 minutes/km, that's bloody walking speed. No wonder Timmy gives you a head start 3 days a week, he can;t go slow enough to run/walk with you. Pretty sure I'll be able talk to him for the first couple of kilometers again.
I see, my old tired memory is out by a factor of 1min/k! whoops! :)
I'd say Tim's biggest concern is not k rates... its making sure he doesnt cook himself and flake out, or drink too much water, or not enough water, or too much food, or not enough food, or try to hold in his spew - better out than in!
For partially blind Matt: "For the record mine is 8:56 or something."
Actually my speed was a mixture or running, walking, walking backwards, hobbling, stickman walking and probably a good dose of wishing the end would hurry up.
You'll be able to chat to Tim for the first few controls next weekend too. There's only one obvious route between the 15 controls.
Seems like too many controls. Tim and Matt can try and get them all. I might just sit in the sun and enjoy the view.
Yes I finally see your PB. Fuck that is slow. And hour slower than my slowest and I used to be sooo fat. How is it possible to be that slow? I've walked the last 20km, all of it and still and hour faster than you.
Tim is going to smash you all. Go Tim! There is only one way, start fast and get faster.
Matt if you gift me your entry I'll see if I can improve on my PB and get closer to your slowest time. In return I can offer you some helpful tips for HoW.
I had hoped Tim and Matt would have some competition but it seems like you've given up before the start Matt. I'm still hopeful that Tane can beat them but I had hoped for a few more competitive teams. Maybe Brent will grow some and turn up. It's the perfect course for him, lots of fast running. He should team up with Ogden and break him.
seeing as Nelson chimed in all I'll say is, bunch of nana's
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