I'd vote for both. Occasionally luck looks over the shoulder ("luck was with me") of the skilled, with good results.
Lucky there wasn't a Honey Locust planted next to the edge of the pavement.
I do recall an incident where maybe something similar happened, and you ended up in not so great shape. Luck was not with you that day.
If there had been Honey Locusts involved, my domestiques would not have even slowed down. It would be pointless. Who could possibly survive hurtling into Honey Locust at 30 mph?
“A good player is always lucky”
I'd say you were lucky to be Armstrong here, rather than Beloki, as that crash basically ended his competitive career. But then you'd be Armstrong and I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
My father stressed this kind of situational awareness when riding in a pack. "Always look at where the crash isn't, because where you're looking is where you're going to go."