Sometimes it's good not to be too confident. Overconfidence can trick you into going out too fast.
Ah, like Clarence DeMar, 2007, my first marathon after a layoff of about 6 years. It was a beautiful day, the course rambled past a burbling river, it was downhill, I felt great.
And then I paid in spades for my arrogance. A pacing disaster. My most positive split marathon (1st half faster than 2nd) since my first. I was so disappointed.
This weekend's weather looks to be slightly to quite warm. (52 to 70 as the course goes on.) Yikes.