in: blairtrewin; blairtrewin > 2007-06-26;
| # Posted 2007-06-27 05:20:16 | |
| lazydave: | Any chance of a long range forecast for the JWOC week? |
| # Posted 2007-06-27 10:24:16 | |
| blairtrewin: | Not yet, but should be able to do something for the first half of the week on Monday. Doesn't look like any major rain in the next week there (in marked contrast to a few other places I can think of). |
| # Posted 2007-06-27 11:08:20 | |
| TheInvisibleLog: | Mt Baw Baw? |
| # Posted 2007-06-27 11:15:04 | |
| Oxoman: | Rumour has it that Mt Baw Baw has been washed into the Thomson reservoir. >300mm rain in last 7 hours. |
| # Posted 2007-06-27 11:42:51 | |
| blairtrewin: | We're not totally convinced about the Baw Baw reading, but my gut feeling is that it's correct given the situation and the radar. If it's for real then the state record (375) is under serious threat. |
| # Posted 2007-06-27 11:51:28 | |
| Uncle JiM: | 355 so far today and 30 overnight, it allready up to 385, if we beleive it |
| # Posted 2007-06-28 08:43:12 | |
| Oxoman: | Those non-believers at the Bureau only credited Mt Baw Baw with 90mm. At least that is consistent with the Resort on-line weather status which described yesterday as "cloudy, light rain". |
| # Posted 2007-06-28 09:51:36 | |
| blairtrewin: | If a rainfall figure is consistent with a ski resort's description of said rain that's probably prima facie evidence that the rainfall figure is wrong. I seem to recall seeing a Hotham ski report a few years ago which mysteriously failed to mention anything about the 79mm of rain that fell overnight.
No idea what the source of the 90 is (where did you see it?). The facts of the matter as far as I know are that the Baw Baw instrument recorded 356 between 0900 and 1630 yesterday (possibly legitimately, possibly not) before going AWOL. Given the other reports in the region (e.g. 319 at Mt Wellington, and at lower elevation, 138 at Erica), even if the Baw Baw instrument was playing up, I would be very surprised if there was not at least 250 there. |
| # Posted 2007-06-28 10:52:29 | |
| TheInvisibleLog: | I assumed that this was yet another example of Baw Baw Resort Management using dubious means to promote their business. When I used to go there to ski, you could always assume that a 'good' rating would match 'fair' anywhere else. Baw Baw 'fair' meant unskiable. My hypothesis is that this time they put a large funnel over the gauge. |
| # Posted 2007-06-28 10:58:54 | |
| Oxoman: | No. My mistake. I must have misread the Bureau's table. There is nothing there. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/200706/html/IDCJ... |
| # Posted 2007-07-02 07:06:29 | |
| blairtrewin: | Back to the original topic. It looks like there is a good chance of a significant cold outbreak late in the week, with good snow potential for the Orange area and the Blue Mountains. (This could create problems for travelling west from Sydney as the roads tend to be closed at the first hint of snow - for those affected it may be worth considering the route via the Hunter Valley instead).
The models are disagreeing a bit on how quickly the coldest air moves out - some still have us in the cold southwesterly on Saturday (in which case daytime temperatures will be near or below 10, and it could be quite windy), others have it gone by then. Once the southwesterly clears out we should have a few days of mainly fine conditions with near-normal daytime temperatures (mid-teens) and light winds, but with overnight frosts, particularly early in the week - wouldn't be surprised to see a -3 or -4 on Sunday/Monday. It doesn't look like there will be any significant rain in the next 8-9 days - maybe a bit of showery stuff late in the week with the cold outbreak but with totals less than 5mm. |
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