Discussion: What's too cold for SkiO?

At what point would you cancel a ski orienteering event if the weather forecast is cold?

It is currently expected to be between -1F and 2F during our event on Sunday. No significant wind is expected. We have a heated indoor gathering place. Any ideas or experiences appreciated!

I think the min for World Cup biathlon and/ or Xc is -4F. The vasaloppet in Minnesota last year had a start temp of -14F without the windchill. With your indoor access I’d say you are ok. So says the guy in TX.

Some science!

TL;DR

Recommended temperature limits.

• Long distance races (30 km and more) minus 16 degrees C.
• Shorter distances (below 30 km) minus 18 degrees C.
• Sprint races minus 20 degrees C.
• Temperature limits for children less than 14 years: minus12 degrees.
• High speed competitions such as alpine skiing, speed skiing and ski jumping should not take place below minus 20 degrees (the wind-chill effect is increased – even though with a relatively short time of exposure).

Every sporting competition must take into consideration the fact that wind will increase the danger of hypothermia by effectively lowering the temperature.

For the US Ski-O Champs in 2003 at Bretton Woods (NH), the meet director claimed that the temperature got above 0 F (-18 F) at some point, but many of us were very skeptical. I know that the coldest temperature I ever saw on my car thermometer was that morning driving through Franconia Notch (I don't remember what it was, maybe -20 F). It was really freaking cold. I wore all the clothes that I had brought, and one of my poles snapped early in the race (brittle from the cold? or just a piece of junk cheap pole?). At least one person went out dressed as it it were ordinary orienteering, with no hat or gloves, and he didn't get very far. It was challenging to wax for those conditions (I had the benefit of an expert who had waxed my skis for me). Several people got frostbite.

The guidelines in the post above seem sensible. You're right on the edge.

OUSA Ski-O rule C.30.3 says:
The race shall be postponed when the temperature, one hour before the beginning of the race, is colder than -20C

But notice it doesn't say where the measurement is supposed to be taken! (e.g. how far from the race official's breath, armpit, etc)

-20C is -4F and as noted above, in line with xc and biathlon rules. I imagine your event isn't required to adhere to OUSA rules since it's not an NRE, but there's probably something to be said for following them anyway and thus having a ready defense in the event of any sort of legal action.

Also, hopefully US ski-o champs won't be impacted by this. The extended forecast at this point is suggesting some pretty cold temps not far above the cutoff.

Looks like the coldest stretch in the extended forecast for Lake Placid is the race days. Fortunately, the coldest day is the shortest race, and it should be warmer for the Long. But it's still a ways out as forecasts go.

MNOC go with the high school skiing policy:

Cold Weather Policy
If the national weather forecast office in Twin Cities projects a -20 deg F or below windchill for the start time we will cancel per MNOC winter policy: Meets are only canceled for extreme weather conditions in winter.

Wind chill is the key factor and not simple air temperature. This protects participants and those volunteering ( especially the setter/ vetter team ). We cancel/ postpone about 1 winter event ( Jan - Feb) every 5 years or so

I recall we have events in winter with expected temp around -15 deg C.
I am talking about marked-course running on foot type of orienteering, not skiing.

For anyone curious, we are planning on holding the event on Sunday.

MNOC winter events are usually Score-O, pick your mode of movement: skis, foot, snowshoes, recently fat tire bikes, of course all combined with carrying your equipment on foot if you so feel.

We use the following NENSA (New England Nordic Ski Association) temperature guidelines for our youth programs:
https://www.nensa.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/T....

BKL = Bill Koch League

That part of me whose job it is to track the world's extreme weather events is taking a close interest in the northeast US (and adjacent parts of Canada) next weekend - certainly considerable potential for numbers significantly lower than any of the limits mentioned in this thread.

On the drive to the event the thermometer hit -27F, but was up to a balmy -14F by the time we got to Lubrecht. When the first people started it was probably closer to -7F, and by the end right around 0F. The folks who came out all seemed to have a good time, but plenty cancelled, which i can't blame them for.

Worried particularly about Friday's race, current forecast for -5F high in the morning with temps falling to -15F in the afternoon. Starts supposed to be at 1pm, so not even when the high is predicted... hope the forecast is wrong! (I guess I'm most worried about not being able to take place because of the rule, I think I can dress appropriately to do a sprint ski-o (will definitely be breathing through a buff in those temps...)

Friday and Saturday both look concerning from the forecasts I'm looking at. Saturday -17F at mass start time, but at least there the temp will be trending up and should reach a legal level with a few hours delay.

It's pretty bad luck that in a winter where NYC still hasn't had measurable snow, and in southern New England there have been more days suitable for running in short sleeves than days needing any winter clothing whatsoever, you organize the US championships in ski-O and races could be canceled, not because of snow, but because of cold without snow.

Don't forget about wind chill. On Friday I'm seeing -26F at first start, dropping to -31F over the next two hours (and -42F overnight!). Delaying in that case will just make things worse. I'm wondering if there will be a provision to distribute the maps in an indoor (or at least wind-sheltered) location, because finger dexterity gets really compromised in that kind of cold. Wind chill at the mass start on Saturday is about -23F, eventually improving to -11F at 4 PM.

I've got a lot of clothes, I'm planning to bring them, and I may wear them all. Nancy is urging me to wear my downhill ski goggles, but I can't read a map with them on.

Yeah, this has been the "hot winter" so far. The lakes around my house (north central Massachusetts) aren't even frozen, and it's 47 F as I type this, four days before the first race.

Map distribution is one of those one-to-many situations. You only have to deal with 1 map. The person distributing them has to deal with all of them and isn't free to move around much. I'm sure they'll work out something appropriate there. These guys live in Lake Placid and are used to dealing with winter extremes.

Just be glad you aren't doing the ESG biathlon. Those folks need index fingers free in order to shoot, so either no mittens, or else remove them before shooting and put them back on after. And the new shooting range is completely exposed to the wind.

Ideally I would like to be notified a day or two in advance if the Friday sprint has to be cancelled, so that I can cancel my room for Thursday night. Realizing of course that it might not be possible to make the call that far in advance...

In my book - and I live in a country with cold winters - temps colder than -15C/5F are unpleasant to compete in. I know how to dress, but hands and toes get the worst beating when skiing.
The numbers stated by hughmac4 in the third post from the top sound reasonable to me - colder than that is definitely a no go for me!

Ski Classics - the Long Distance series in Europe - had an unfortunate event two years ago where several of the skiers suffered severe frost bite. It´s not worth to gamble with the risk of losing fingers or toes!

OUSA ski-o rules specify a minimum temperature of -20C to hold a race. Start times for both Friday's Sprint and Saturday's Middle have been changed to 12 noon as the the warmest part of the day is generally from about noon to 3 pm or so and it should hit -20 or higher each day. Friday's event is a sprint so racers won't be out for too long. There is supposed to be some wind but the courses are in pretty thick forest so it should be minimal. On Friday, the lodge does not lend itself to indoor map handouts but we will use a small equipment shed nearby with propane heaters set up and racers are welcome to crowd in as close as possible before they start to try and stay warm. On Saturday the maps will be handed out indoors and then everybody will dash out to the big field beside the lodge to get started en masse. Race officials will be monitoring everybody for signs of frostbite. Much warmer weather is predicted for Sunday, just in time for the Long event! Updates will be posted here as well as on the website.

I am also entered in the Fatbike race at Dewey. I believe the start time is 3pm. Maybe i can get one of the early starts for the ski O?edit: they moved the race to Sunday morning at 10:30am. Ugh

I'm not seeing a temperature prediction above -23 C during daylight hours on Friday, but that's still several days away, so who knows. Sounds like you have made a good plan given what you have to work with.

I take it the start times on EventReg don't reflect the changed start window yet, right?

Is there a rule that it has to be during daylight hours? There are several hours before daylight on Friday during which the temp is forecast to be well above -20C. Does everyone have a headlamp?

Might be a little difficult for some people to arrive on time. ;-)

Seriously, though, there is such a rule for foot-O (A.3.1 specifies no starts until an hour after sunrise), but it's missing from the ski-O rules (there's no mention one way or the other about night ski-O events).

Note: Times on EventReg have been updated.

This is not looking any better today. Current forecast is showing temps continuously below -20 C from 7 AM Friday to 2 PM Saturday, putting both days potentially at risk.

Friday looks like it could be salvaged with a 0-dark early start, sometime before the temp drops to -20. Saturday looks iffy, but shows a potential window above -20 at 3 or 4 PM.

I'm seeing Friday's temperature dropping below -20 C an hour before sunrise (at Lake Placid), and Saturday's temperature at Dewey Mountain matching what fossil notes. It's all just forecasts at this point, of course, and will be revised in the next few days.

If it does turn out as currently forecasted, what will be the general tolerance among those involved for requesting an exception from the rule? I don't see a viable option of rescheduling races within the weekend, other than pushing Saturday's race as late into the afternoon as possible.

Those who drive may be able to do the sprint after the long on Sunday. It would for sure cut down on competitors (and make for very late Sunday nights for those compete, in general), but if Friday has to be canceled would at least get some, I think? (But not sure on venue feasibility.)

Another approach would be to shorten all courses one category and cancel what has been white, because that's the kiddos. (Note -12C recommendation for kids on hughmac4's post.)

Just ideas. I am super-hoping the forecasts turn around and temps are legal or legal-enough! I think EMPO is doing awesomely so far with the revised schedule and the info on how to dress for the cold to avoid frostbite!

Maybe it is time to contact HAARP to see if they can help, just a bit, to bring temps locally up a notch to be within legal range?

We would certainly consider running the Sprint on Friday if there was a consensus among racers to request an exemption from the temperature rule - but it would depend on OUSA granting it. As for running the Sprint after the Long on Sunday - that wouldn't be possible as the venues are about 45 minutes apart and we'll be tied up waiting for people to finish the course (3 hour course limit) plus awards til mid to late afternoon at the VIC. No time to get race officials back over to Cascade before dark, unfortunately. We have a few older kids and one adult on White so we wouldn't want to cancel their race. We really want this to work so keep the ideas coming!

Is it the Ski-O committee or the Sanctioning Committee (or somebody else?) who would need to be asked for an exemption? If it's Ski-O, Larry Berman is listed as being in charge, and knowing Larry, he might be amenable to such a request. Up at the top of this thread when I mentioned the meet at Bretton Woods? The meet director who said "the show must go on" was... Larry.

If you were to shift all the courses shorter, there's really only one adult on White, and she's over 80, which might have the same concerns as for kids in terms of a higher cutoff temperature. On the other hand, she's an adult and can make her own decisions if you were to shift all the courses shorter and keep White on White (along with Orange on White), then any White people who were willing could still do White... don't know how much that would help... but maybe.

Here's a fun frostbite chart.

What about running the Sprint race as an ESG event only, not a US Championship event? Would people still be interested in competing? We could also change the start time to earlier in the morning, say 10 am. There isn't that much difference between the Sprint distances and if somebody thinks their course will take too long they could always race in an open Rec event, like M-White. There are ESG medals for those events as well.

I am not an OUSA officer but if I were, and there were safety rules decided in advance, and I waived them because 'the show must go on,' and something bad happened, I would be getting legal advice pretty quickly. I don't think that would look good in court.

I can only speak for myself: on Friday, for a course that's only 2.4 km, I think I can protect myself adequately from the cold. It doesn't matter to me if it's a US Championship, an ESG race, or just a local event.

That said, since Saturday's conditions are not supposed to be appreciably warmer, the course is about 2.5 times as long, and there's the additional complication of multiple map exchanges, there's a pretty strong chance that I won't show up no matter what.

Sunday looks like it's going to be great.

(And a caveat on all of this is that I'm merely a chatterbox, not someone with competitive skills in this variant of the sport, so what I think is of comparatively low importance.)

Our family’s white skier (Peter) will likely not be coming due to the weather. Too high a risk for not having done solo ski-o, although I’d be totally comfortable sending him out under normal winter conditions. cmpbllj will likely stay home with him. They think cmpblla and I are a bit nuts.

Please don't change Friday's start to 10am. Many folks plan on driving to Lake Placid Friday morning and would miss a 10am start.

At the present time the forecast is showing the same temp for 10 AM and for noon, -24 C, so I'm not sure what that change would gain us. On the other hand if it was moved up to, say, 4 AM, the current forecast for that hour is -16 C and less wind as well. That would be annoying for people planning on driving in just in time, but wouldn't it be better than cancelling entirely? Or using up a whole day doing a non-championship event in bitterly cold weather on skis that don't even slide?

From a weather perspective, the pool of cold air is intense but relatively fast-moving, so the fall in temperature as a result of the change in air mass during Friday is more than enough to override the usual diurnal warming. Could be worse - the forecast for Mount Washington is -36F with 80 mph winds gusting to 100....

See y'all on Sunday.

A bold and probably crazy idea: run the normal courses, but with a strict time limit. On the sprint, everyone stops and returns 20 min into their course. Whoever gets the furthest along the course wins, and so on, with ties in number of controls visited decided by time to the last-visited control.

Because the danger increases lots with time spent out there at these temps... to do this for the middle you'd of course have to switch from mass start to interval start and keep everyone doing the loops in the same order...

(If race organizers do take up this idea, I volunteer to work out the results, which there clearly won't be software to do.)

So the forecast this morning is now showing a slight amount of diurnal warming on Friday afternoon, enough to push the temp up to -22 C for a couple of hours at 1 and 2 PM. That's getting almost close enough for some creative thermometer reading, or perhaps even an exemption "just this once, because it's only sprint distance".

Starting to feel cautiously optimistic, but there's still 2 more days to wait and watch.

Saturday's forecast is now showing a legal temp window between 2 and 5 PM so that looks promising.

The race jury has agreed on the following formats for Friday and Saturday's events:
The Sprint will go ahead on Friday but it won't be a US Championship event. It will, however, be an ESG event and ESG medals will be awarded. It will start at 12 noon and the course time limit is 1 hour. EMT personnel will be at the Finish with first aid supplies for cold induced injuries and race officials will monitor skiers as they pass by during their race to check for frostbite. If any symptoms are observed skiers must stop skiing immediately and go indoors to warm up. Racers must have a face covering in order to start the event.
Saturday's Middle event at Dewey Mt. will start at 12 noon. The predicted temperature for Saturday noon will be checked on Friday morning and if it's warmer than -15C the courses will run as scheduled. If the predicted temperature is -16C or colder the course lengths will be shortened to the course below, ie Blue to Red, Red to Green, Green to Orange and Orange to White. Those currently registered for White will still ski White. Course time limit will be shortened to 2 hours. Again we'll be checking for frostbite.
These revisions will be posted soon on the website. We know they won't please everybody but we do appreciate all your input and have tried to incorporate as many as your proposals as we could. See you soon!

Weather Service forecast is for 1-3" of snow Thursday night in the Lake Placid area - some nice fluffy slowness for those who opt to race...

Saturday looks to be an interesting waxing challenge. Although the air temperature is supposed to be -22 C at noon, that snow will have been sitting in the deep, deep freeze for a full day, with the temperature having dropped to -32 C by the time morning arrives. It will be mighty cold stuff.

Would it be possible to leave controls out on the sprint course so that people could re-ski it on Sunday, for those of us who might not be able to make it on Friday?

Ought to be doable even without controls. It's ski-o, not like they'd be behind boulders.

MapRun perhaps?

The Eastern Canadian Nordic Ski Champs are taking place in Ottawa this weekend. They have cancelled some of the youth races (that I believe have a -15C cutoff rule).
https://easterns.ca/index.php/2023/01/31/cold-weat...

Speaking of cold weather and cancellations, a school in Nunavut just loosened their cold temp school closure policy to -60C from -50C.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/sanirajak-col...

Good luck to those racing this weekend.

Note that that Nunavut policy is for wind chill, not temperature.

We'll leave the sprint control flags (but not SI boxes) out at Cascade until Monday. You can pick up a map at Dewey on Saturday or the VIC on Sunday.

Thanks Janet, a bunch of us Canadians have decided to instead do the sprint Saturday afternoon after the middle. Looking forward to the weekend :)

One other iceberg floating around the "how cold is too cold?" pool that could potentially surface tomorrow is SI punching. According to the datasheets the station and SIAC stick operating range goes down to -20 C. With a current forecast of -26 C at start time it looks like we're going to find out if there is any margin available there.

That is just the range that the components are guaranteed to meet the parameters in the data sheet. They don't just stop working beyond that range, but they may not meet voltage specs or timing specs at the extreme edge of their parameters. In the SI world that means maybe stations with already sketchy batteries would fail, or the time drift since synchronization would be larger.

I'd interpret it as "below -20 C, it could work, but no promises".

Lake Placid is the place where the Miracle on Ice once occurred.
Would there be another miracle this time that no one expects?

Middle Start on Saturday will be delayed until 1:30 pm.

Thanks jfindlay!

Sentences you don't often read in the weather forecast:

Model guidance is also indicating that the tropopause could dip below the summit [of Mt. Washington] Friday night. As a result, winds will become more compressed in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, leading wind speeds to increase even further overnight Friday.

From the NH higher summits forecast for today.

The good news is that the temperature goes up the higher you go in the stratosphere, right?

(I have no idea how common an occurrence it is) but technically, depending on how thick the tropopause is at that time/place - you might be able to drive into the stratosphere. I didn't know that was a thing (maybe it's not.)

The conditions are extreme enough that the English-units version of the National Weather Service forecast graph for Mt. Washington is seriously broken, and the SI-units version is partially broken.

(You definitely can't drive a car on the Mt. Washington auto road this time of year.)

haha well yeah, the idea, not the logistical fact (hopefully no one has a ‘snowmobile in the stratosphere’ bucket-list item)

There are tracked vehicles that go up there regularly to service the observatory (which has a full-time staff). Don't know if they're on hold right now.

the peak of orienteering season in places far South is in mid-winter

... so, as somebody who's probably never experienced anything colder than -20'C: how was your ski-o last weekend? Any technical, equipmental, or other failures to note for next time?

I didn't show up on the cold days, but the times were quite long (compared to the third, warmer day) suggesting that the conditions made for very slow skis.

I heard about some boots with metal pieces that snapped on the sprint. I didn't race Friday, but was comfortable - even too warm - Saturday. It was tough skiing, though.

Skiing Friday was dreadfully slow. Perhaps the slowest conditions that I have ever skied in. Although, I did have glide was for about -10C, and was to lazy to rewax for the colder conditions. I don't think it would have helped too much. Skating required even more arms than usual, and I found myself mostly offset skiing.
My hands got bitterly cold, and I had to hide them behind my back on the downhills to protect from the wind chill. Balaclava iced over and was tough to breath through, so I was constantly pulling it down to breathe better, and up to protect from the wind.
It was quite the extreme effort, and I likely won't go out in those conditions again.
Saturday was much better. Even though still cold, skis ran better.
Still, all around it was a fantastic weekend. Cold skiing is still better than no skiing!

Yep, my mom's boots snapped, and we're not sure whether or not it was from the cold or the shoe quality. Other than that, skiing on Friday was like skiing on sand. Saturday was definitely a bit faster, like skiing on fine sand. It was a blast, and definitely a challenge.

if the US Champs were 5-6 days later then this thread would have been “what’s too much rain and warmth for skiO”.

weather whiplash

Yeah, it managed to hit the lone two-day cold snap in a hot winter.

better that it was that cold than if there was no snow at all

Just like the two day Vic MTBO Champs that had to be cancelled a few years ago because they happened to be on the only two extreme fire danger days of the entire month.

Wimps. In 1989 the USA Team Trials for WOC was held in a forest that was actually on fire. (It was already on fire before the first start, we could see billowing smoke as we were driving in.)

That always generates a certain amount of incredulity when I relate that story in Australia (although eastern US fires are usually much lower intensity than Australian - or western North American - ones).

Agreed. Although much more recently there were events held in California where the forest we were in was not burning, but there were intense fires not all that far away, and the starts were delayed in hopes that the air quality would get a little better.

I've also orienteered during an active tornado warning, with sirens going off.

Having a job which (among other things) involves tracking the world's extreme weather events gives you a healthy respect for the ways in which they kill people.

1989 was a far different time in terms of risk assessment and access issues than what we have to endure these days. I've rogained through farmland that was on fire a couple of decades ago. Although it's also not unusual for the government departments to go and do a burnoff the day before or the day of an event in an area that they have given us approval for so their own systems are a bit ordinary.

Basically now if there's a chance it could kill or injure you now matter how small, then you're unlikely to get approval or will have to jump through significant hoops in order to do so (though the event will likely still be cancelled if something crops up in the meantime). I have to write up a Traffic Management Plan coincidentally for this year's Vic MTBO Champs because participants have to cross a road. Not during the event mind you, this is just to get to the start. It's not to actually manage the traffic, just to tell the bureaucracy how our participants are going to cross the road.

Presumably via hoverboard?

No I'm thinking of building a bridge over the road so that the riders aren't inconvenienced by the one car that passes through every five minutes or so.

Meet notes..."look both ways before crossing the road".

At the 1993 WOC, the Short Final courses crossed a pretty major road. We looked into getting a bridge built, and the offhand cost estimate was $100,000. Way outside of our budget. So we got permission from the park tostation volunteers to direct traffic who could stop cars whenever there was a runner coming.

The next day there were public races on the same map, and again we had people directing traffic. One person would be spotting, and call down to the people at the road. Depending on the speed of the person, they'd shout "Runner", "Orienteer", or "Walker". Well, some of the slower people took offense to that. But these particular volunteers were from Ireland, and knew an obscure language, so they switched to that.

Runner and Walker seem more or less self-explanatory but what speed is "Orienteer"?

If I remember correctly, it was somewhere in between.

These days (in Aus at least) if you wanted to be able to stop or direct traffic, you'd need an official qualification. Also a sign.

Sounds like some kind of calamity is guaranteed when JJ is present at an event

If one goes to enough events, there are bound to be some war stories. (I actually showed up for one event and it was literally cancelled due to war.)