Note
So, here we are again – 2 years after the previous marathon, here I am with 2 days to go. I was feeling pretty confident 5-6 weeks ago, when I ran the 1:22 half in Kingston, but things don’t seem to have gone so well since then – I starting getting much more fatigued as the training reached its peak, and then it took me a good week to get over a sickness bug, and I don’t feel I’ve got back to feeling as good and fit and fresh as I was at the end of Feb.
I’d currently rate my chances of going sub-3 as about 50/50 (that’s definitely the key objective, I’m not even thinking about the chance of going any faster than that). I think my mind is saying I should be much more confident than that but the body doesn’t feel nearly so sure – perhaps a bit of pre-race jitters, perhaps remembering what happened last time (when I was felt more confident than I am now), or just the fact I haven't felt as fresh and good on runs during the taper as I'd like. But I'm trying to think positive thoughts now:
* I’ve been very lucky with illness/injury overall during the build-up and barely missed a planned session – maybe just 4 or 5 days out in total with a minor injury at Christmas and the illness recently.
* Following the Pfitzinger plan has gone really well – I’ve progressed on from doing the (minimum mileage) ‘under 55 miles a week’ program last time to somewhere roughly half way between that and the ‘under 70’ program this time, and the body generally has coped very well with the extra mileage.
* As a result, my total training mileage in the build-up to this marathon has been 20% greater than last time – an average of 86km (53 miles) per week over a full 18 weeks, compared to 72km (44 miles) last time. That really ought to be a huge advantage.
* In 2014 the training generally went well but I struggled with tempo runs and a few races I did. This time the tempos have all been great, and I’ve set a half marathon PB. Surely a sign of a much better level of fitness!
* I know the Manchester marathon course now, which should really help – e.g. I’m aware that there will be a tough section from 20-22 miles in the countryside away from the crowds (where it all fell apart last time) and I feel if I can get through that section still on track I’ll be in a good place.
* I have to remember where I’ve come from – after the 2014 marathon, I spent the best part of 18 months being injured on and off. As recently as last June-August I had an 2-month block where I wasn’t able to run at all due to injury, and it was only in November that I finally felt properly injury-free – I’m amazed how I’ve managed to progress back to this level of fitness since then.
I’m going to pace it much more conservatively early on than last time – my half-way target is 89:00-89:30, and 20 miles at around 2:16:00-2:16:30 and I’m going to try really hard to be somewhere within those and no faster – last time’s 87:49 at half-way and 2:14:18 at 20 miles (both at 2:56 pace) were definitely a bit too quick, and experience is telling me I run much better if I can start a bit slower and finish more strongly – ideally a negative split!
In general I don’t think I could have prepared any better than I have done, I’ve really given it my best shot throughout the whole training block and focused as much as I can on maximising my performance on race-day. Now just got to see it through as best I can and hope for the best. Que sera sera.