numbers nerd alert....skip if this stuff annoys you...(dont blame you, its some intense "navel gazing"
assessing where my running is at and where I might get it to...I looked at this calculator to tell how much the warmer temps effected my time:...fantastic stuff here:
http://fellrnr.com/wiki/Running_Calculator
this helps me compare to my 2006 result on basically the same course
It should be noted that although I was light on total mileage I had pretty good prep (from a pretty low point due to my knee problems) the last 3 months....from August to October I ran 17 hours of training and that included 7 Long runs and 6 tempo workouuts andd 5 shorter interval workouts.....Thats roughly a long run every 2 weeks, and 1 tempo workout/or shorter interval workout every week on roughly 90 minutes of running/week....but with cross training.
-it was 43F in 2006/68F in 2016...this cost me :09/mile
-I was 168 for the run in 2006 had just lost about 5 lbs due to concerted effort and was 178 in 2016 that cost me :30/mile
-I was 48 in 2006/58 in 2016....effects of age cost me :48/mile (but this might include typical weight gain that comes with ageing)
in 2006 I ran 1:29:26 8:57/mile
in 2016 I ran 1:44:23 10:26/mile.....
if I subtract out the effects of age (:48/mile) and the warmer temps (:09)/mile. You get a per mile average of 9:29....which means that I could realistically drop another :32/mile of potential when compared to my 2006/ mile self....
also of note....I averaged 161 in 2016 compared to 154 in 2006 with a likely maz HR that has dropped 3-5 HR beats/minute meaning my effort was significantly higher in my slower and my most recent run and in 2006 I had run a red orienteering course full out the day before. I was much more rested this time around....
what does all this mean?....I should be able to drop another :20/mile with consistent training and might be able to do that with a weight loss of 6 lbs or so.....(that's not likely to happen, honestly as a slowing metabolism makes weight loss very difficult)
Bottom line: I will work to train in a way to drop my /mile pace to 15-:20/mile for next summer....a realistic possibility if I really work hard on it even as I age another year....