Discussion: swine flu

my dad is trying to prepare me for the worst and is telling me that if this flu becomes a pandemic, that JWOC might not happen this year.
could they really cancel a world champs because of this?

really i just think my dad and everyone else is over reacting and that it will blow over within a week...maybe 2

its not called race quarantine for nothing...

Rather than read the alarmist news stories, I found it instructive to read the CDC's article on the 1918 "Spanish Flu" pandemic which killed 50-100 million people. After 75 years of study, it is surprising how little is really known about that flu event. And this may be the reason that world health organizations are so wary about the current developing flu wave...they just don't know how bad it might become.

But one thing is known about 1918 (and may be behind talk of JWOC cancellation), unlike most flu outbreaks, which have killed only the very young and very old (a U-curve), that one exhibited a W-curve, killing an enormous number of people in the 15-34 age range.

...Influenza and pneumonia death rates for those 15-34 years of age in 1918-1919, for example, were >20 times higher than in previous years...Overall, nearly half of the influenza-related deaths in the 1918 pandemic were in young adults 20-40 years of age, a phenomenon unique to that pandemic year...

If it gets that bad then not having JWOC will be the least of our problems. I couldn't see JWOC being called off unless countries started closing borders (might be different if the event was scheduled for Mexico).

who said a "W" curve was distinct in bacon flu?

The answer to my question (and I would guess most other people's) that the mainstream media seem incapable of answering:

http://newsblaze.com/story/20090427092841mcco.nb/t...

Let the scientists answer the Q's & the media do what they usually do - speculate !

4 brief opinions via NY Times:
http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/...

There was an outbreak of a swine flu variant in 1977 that created a brief scare, but turned into a fizzle as opposed to a full-blown pandemic. Too early to tell for sure what will happen this time. As tcut suggested, lets give the CDC and WHO some time to figure it out.

If the incubation period is about 10 days, it may be a while before we figure out just how easily this is spreading and whether any extreme measures like closing borders or restricting air travel are necessary. In the meantime, as with any flu, good personal hygiene is the best defense.

Bloody media, we wouldn't be in a recession if it wasn't for them

As long as you training hard for JWOC and your immune system becomes weaker than normal 20 years old juniors, you are ok! :)